Free NFL Picks For Today 9/17/2019
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pick Prediction 9/19/2019
Titans at Jaguars—NFL pick is Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars to play under the total of 40 points. Head to head these teams have combined for under 40 points in three straight meetings. Jaguars managed only 12 points on the Texans defense last week under backup quarterback Gardner Minshew who is in for an injured Nick Foles. Team generated only 281 yards for the game. Credit the Jags defense for keeping the team in the game with a chance to win with a late two point conversion that missed. Jacksonville held Houston to 263 yards of offense. Tennessee didn’t produce much in their divisional loss at home to Indianapolis with 17 points and 242 offensive yards. Titans have been terrible on third down converting only 3 of 20 and now face a good Jaguars defense on the road in a short week. Jaguars are 25th in the league in the red zone and bottom half on third down. Play Tennessee and Jacksonville under the total of 40 points.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Jaguars Pick Prediction 9/22/2019
Ravens at Chiefs—NFL free pick is Baltimore Ravens +7. Baltimore has been good to bettors on the road covering four straight. Baltimore with another good defensive effort holding the Cardinals to 17 points. On the season the Ravens are allowing just 274 yards per game. They are moving the ball on offense and throwing for 405 yards per contest with 70.5% completion rate. Ravens are taking care of the football and piled up 440 yards on the Cardinals defense and Lamar Jackson was accurate. Baltimore has been good on red zone defense ranking fifth in the league and are fourth on offense. KC is allowing a 70% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. Back door cover very possible here. Chiefs defense 22nd on third down. Play Baltimore +7.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Pick Prediction 9/22/2019
Bengals at Bills—Free pick is Buffalo Bills -6. Bills defense has performed well holding the Giants to 14 points last week and the Jets to 16 points in their opener with both games on the road. They are holding teams to 296 yards per game. Bengals are having trouble running the football with 1.8 yards per rush average on 29 carries per game. Cincinnati off to an 0-2 start after dropping a 41-17 decision in their home opener to San Francisco. With the Bengals under their new coaching staff under tape after week one, San Francisco was able to were able to move the football for 572 yards with 313 passing and 259 rushing. Opponents are averaging nearly 7 yards per play on the Cincinnati defense. Bengals offense is 1 of 6 inside the red zone for last in the NFL. Buffalo has been a perfect 5 of 5 inside the red zone. Bills have covered their past four games and have a very good home field advantage. Play Buffalo Bills -6.
Oakland Raiders vs. Minnesota Vikings Pick Prediction 9/22/2019
Raiders at Vikings—NFL pick is Minnesota Vikings -8. Must respect this home field in Minnesota. The team led the league by fare in sack percentage at home last year. They opened the season with a dominating home win against the Atlanta Falcons 28-12. Vikings offense will perform better in their home stadium. Must be concerned about the Raiders pass defense allowing 350 yards per game with a 68% completion rate. Vikings defense after getting behind early stopped the scoring and allowed for a possible Minnesota comeback. Vikings defense has forced five turnovers in two games and they are eighth in the league on getting off the field on third down. Oakland could only score 10 points and gain 307 yards of offense on the KC defense on the first week teams have tape on you. Oakland defense surrendered 464 yards in the loss to a Chiefs offense missing Tyreek Hill. Raiders defense now 29th in the league on third down. Play Minnesota -8.
Denver Broncos vs. Green Bay Packers Pick Prediction 9/22/2019
Broncos at Packers—NFL free pick is Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers to play under the total of 43.5. Denver has defended well this season holding opponents to 315 yards per game. Bears threw for only 120 yards last week. This is a desperate 0-2 team that has an experienced quarterback in Joe Flacco at quarterback. Green Bay had a good sixteen minutes off offense to start the game against Minnesota but when they held scoreless for nearly a full three quarterbacks as the Vikings got back into the game. Green Bay has faced two good defenses to start the season and has averaged only 15.5 points and 274 yards per game. Most pass completions for Joe Flacco are for under ten yards. Broncos 30th in the league in the red zone. Green Bay defense has not allowed a red zone touchdown. Play Denver and Green Bay under the total of 43.5 points.
Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles Pick Prediction 9/22/2019
Lions at Eagles—Free pick is Detroit Lions +7. Lions have failed to cover both of their games this season. Tough to back the Eagles laying a touchdown behind their defense. Team is allowing 340 yards passing with 65.5% completion rate ranking 31st in the league. Lions are moving the football through the air with 301 yards passing with 65.3% completion rate. Detroit has covered four of five against Philadelphia. Eagles slow start continued as they are now 0-5 to the spread in September games. Team is dealing with injuries at wide receiver in Jackson and Jeffery. Lions defense sits fourth in the red zone. Play Detroit +7.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick Prediction 9/22/2019
Falcons at Colts—NFL pick is Indianapolis Colts -2.5. Don’t want the Falcons on the road in this spot getting less than a field goal. Their pass protection and offense were poor in their road defeat at Minnesota. Atlanta dealing with injuries to their offensive line which get magnified when the team plays on the road. Colts have covered both games to start the season in an overtime loss at LA Chargers and last week winning a divisional game at Tennessee in another fourth quarterback clutch drive by quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Indianapolis defense was good holding the Titans to 242 yards offensively. Indianapolis has been good in the red zone converting five of six drives on offense. Behind running back Marlon Mack the Colts are running for 185 yards per game with 5.5 yards per run. Falcons defense has struggled on third down ranking 27th in the league allowing 14 of 27 conversions. Play Indianapolis Colts -2.5.
Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys Pick Prediction 9/22/2019
Dolphins at Cowboys—NFL pick is Dallas Cowboys -21. Really tough to back the clearinghouse known as the 2019 Miami Dolphins who continue to purge starters for draft picks which elevates reserves to starters and practice squad players to backups as well as special teams. It is a contract year for Dak Prescott and no better time to pad stats then this game. Amari Cooper is also looking for a contract. Cowboys moving the football for 384 yards with 333 passing with a 82.3% completion rate. Dolphins offense anemic gaining 192 yards and only 3.9 per play. Defensively Miami surrendering 512 yards with 51 points per game. Dolphins defense giving up 79.6% completion rate. Dallas number one in the league with 10.6 yards per pass attempt. Cowboys have been best in the league offensively on third down and fifth in red zone. Dallas defense third in the NFL on third down. Miami 5 of 20 on third down offensively and on defense allowing 13 of 22 conversions all near the bottom of the league. Play Dallas -21.
Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals Pick Prediction 9/22/2019
Panthers at Cardinals—NFL free pick is Arizona Cardinals +3. Tough to lay points on the road with the Panthers with Cam Newton at quarterback. Newton is no longer a threat to run the football and has issues throwing the football downfield. NFL defensive coordinators saw the game plan to defend Carolina last Thursday night and that is stacking the line to contain their lone offensive weapon in Christian McCaffrey. Cardinals showed a level of competitiveness in their home tie to Detroit and their cover at Baltimore. Arizona is throwing the football for 302 yards this season. Panthers have failed to cover five straight against teams under .500. They have not been good on third down. Play Arizona Cardinals +3.
New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick Prediction 9/22/2019
Giants at Buccaneers—Free pick is New York Giants +7. Not ready to lay -7 with Jameis Winston at quarterback just yet. Buccaneers offense is averaging only 292 yards and 18.5 points per game on the season. Bucs running for only 3.9 yards per run. They went on the road and beat a Carolina team who has only one weapon on offense in Christian McCaffrey. New York drew two strong defensive teams to begin the season with losses to Buffalo and Dallas. This looks to be a step down in class for New York. Giants are moving the football for 420 yards with 140 rushing for 7.8 yards per run. Tampa Bay has not been good offensively in the red zone with two of six conversions and they are in the bottom quartile on third down. Play New York Giants +7.
Houston Texans vs. LA Chargers Pick Prediction 9/22/2019
Texans at Chargers—NFL pick is Houston Texans +3. LA is dealt another injury as their safety Adrian Phillips breaks his forearm and is out. They are also without a main target in the passing game in Hunter Henry and cluster injuries to their defense. Texans 1-1 on the year after a physical 13-12 home win to divisional foe Jacksonville. Texans did get the cover in their opener at New Orleans in a road two point defeat. Chargers have failed to cover both games this season. A late fourth quarter and two point conversion by Indianapolis forced overtime in the Chargers opening win. Then last week lots of mistakes and injuries led to a 13-10 loss at the Lions. LAC is giving up 75.4% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. Also, a concern the Chargers surrendering 4.9 yards per run. They sit in the lower quartile in the league defensively on third down. Play Houston Texans +3.
New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks Pick Prediction 9/22/2019
Saints at Seahawks—NFL free pick is New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks under the total of 45 points. Tough spot for New Orleans as they lose Drew Brees for up to six weeks with a thumb injury. Saints will look to backup Teddy Bridgewater. He suffered a major injury with the Vikings and never got his starting job back. He was a dink and dunk passer in his time with the Vikings. Team was held to nine points in their loss at the Rams last week. Seahawks return home as they caught a break at Pittsburgh with Ben Roethlisberger leaving the game with an elbow injury. New Orleans has not been good offensively in the red zone this season. Saints defense did play well at LA. Seahawks this season again good on third down and red zone. Play New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks under 45 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco 49ers Pick Prediction 9/23/2019
Steelers at 49ers—Free pick is Pittsburgh Steelers +7. Ben Roethlisberger goes down and Mason Rudolph gets the start. Rudolph won a heated battle with Joshua Dobbs for the backup position. He did put up good numbers in relief last week and now gets reps with the first string in practice. Look for the Steelers to work their run game behind James Connor and Benny Snell to help Rudolph. Steelers have had a tough schedule to begin the year with the Patriots and Seahawks. San Francisco started the season at Cincinnati and Tampa Bay. They benefitted by many Bucs mistakes in their opener and faced a bad Bengals defense last week. 49ers do lose their starting left tackle to injury. Issue with the 49ers is their defense doesn’t get off the field on third down ranking 26th in the league. Pittsburgh generates enough offense to cover here. Play Pittsburgh Steelers +7.
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Redskins Pick Prediction 9/22/2019
Bears at Redskins—NFL pick is Chicago Bears and Washington Redskins to play under the total of 42 points. Bears offense has not shown much in a 10-3 home loss to Green Bay and a 16-14 win at Denver. Each game went under and the Bears have played six straight under’s dating back to last year. Bears offense generating only 263 yards with 164 passing. Chicago is averaging a minuscule 4.6 yards per pass attempt. Team is 28th offensively on third down and second in the league on defense. Chicago has had only two red zone appearances in two games. Washington is not generating much on the ground with 2.5 yards per carry on 37 rushes per game. That puts Case Keenum in tough down and distance situations against a good Bears defense. Redskins offense sits bottom third converting third down plays. Washington defense also takes a step down in class because they faced good offenses teams in the Cowboys and Eagles to start the season. Redskins have a good defensive line and talent on defense. Play Washington and Chicago under the total of 42 points.